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"I'll be sitting in this position by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, adding that if the discussion went well, he might invite us into Number 10 for another chat in the coming year.

For a PM, there's rarely ever downtime for those in the top job. Just an hour before we sat down, Sir Keir had been in calls with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to understand what on earth had occurred in Venezuela, where his key friend, US President Donald Trump, had just attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once our interview, which was far more extended than usual, had concluded, Maduro had been charged in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

With the year starts, Sir Keir seems to have had something of a revitalisation. Maybe even just a little downtime with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

That certainly seemed to have resulted in a more positive mood than at the sluggish conclusion of 2025, a dreadful political year for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters kidding themselves if they reckon his fortunes are poised to get better?

Internal Doubts

The harsh reality for the PM is that a significant number of his colleagues believe he's not very good at his job. Several of them would sooner gamble and oust him sooner rather than later.

But Starmer was rejecting the idea when we spoke on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he told me he'd be "judged at the next election", insisting no one would strip his electoral mandate from him – even if the optimal path of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 could be for Labour to replace leader.

"This is the battle of our generation and I intend to be at the forefront," he said.

Upcoming Local Votes

The challenge for the PM is that he will be assessed long before then – in a huge set of elections in May across the UK. He tried to argue, maybe too much, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

True – to some extent. But even though he may not want to acknowledge it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would walk away, even if one of his colleagues challenged him for the job, should those elections be very poor for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He tried to explain his unpopularity by saying the public was understandably impatient for things to get better. He tried to persuade me, and the nation, that 2026 would be a change.

The economy would improve notwithstanding rising unemployment, he said, when strategies the administration put in place during their first choppy year began to take effect.

• He committed to close asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, although he did not put a firm date on that.
• He added too, with the proviso that it was not a certainty, that a settlement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any time since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He disclosed for the first time that Western partners were now considering how to coordinate US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to safeguard a possible peace.

His central point is that soon the country will "reach a turning point".

A Consistent Script

The prime minister may have spoken with renewed vitality than observed from him for a some time – calmer, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of encountering pressure from various quarters for a more decisive approach, with much more political vision, more dynamism, more pace and more urgency, his arguments were well-known ones.

When he finds himself in this much political trouble, should he consider a change of tack?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, gets everything its own way.

The Prime Minister's challenges are not only because government is challenging, but because he and his team have made mistakes, even in the recent past.

Controversies and Dangers

The prime minister told me that he regretted saying he was "happy" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an backlash when statements he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Starmer blamed "procedures" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is inviting obvious political perils as the year unfolds. His alliance with the US president acquires a new complication after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over many years, the notion he would be at ease with such action seems implausible.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He asserted he was a "lifelong advocate of international law" but the public "just haven't got the full picture at the moment".

Opponents demanded condemn it prior to the interview. And the administration is likely to face more pressure to give an definitive view in Parliament in the next few days.

And there has always been simmering desire in the Labour ranks to undo or remake some of the outcomes of Brexit.

The PM disputes he's doing that, but his new more concrete plan to move closer with the EU's single market – the huge economic European market – will likely provoke accusations that he is reneging on his promise never to try to undo the choices that followed Brexit.

A commitment to align with more of the single market will satisfy a faction on his side of the party, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to